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Wojna handlowa Chiny – USA

Drodzy Czytelnicy, tym razem – po raz pierwszy na mojej stronie – zamieszczam wpis w jezyku angielskim, jest to omówienie raportu, jaki strona chińska opublikowała w związku z wojną handlową między Pekinem a Waszyngtonem.

 

Poniżej zaś krótkie streszczenie w języku polskim:

 

Pod koniec września Chiny opublikowały raport “Fakty i stanowisko Chin dotyczące tarć handlowych Chiny-USA” dotyczący stanowiska Chin. Na wstępie autorzy raportu zauważają, że oba kraje są na różnych etapach rozwoju, mają różne systemy ekonomiczne, stąd też tarcia między takimi krajami są czymś nieuniknionym. Chiny są za obupólnym rozwoju, ale to wymaga od obu stron współpracy ze sobą w ramach WTO. Obecnie zaś ta współpraca jest zawieszona na skutek działań administracji prezydenta Trumpa.

 

W raporcie Chiny odnoszą się do czterech głównych oskarżeń, jakie pod ich adresem wysuwają Stany Zjednoczone: nieuczciwym (ze strony Chin) handlem, kradzieżą praw własności intelektualnej/IPR (intellectual property right), ekonomiczną agresją i nacjonalistycznym kapitalizmem. 

 

Na koniec zaś Chiny prezentują swój punkt widzenia, który zawiera się w kilku punktach:

1.    Chiny będą bronić swoje interesy. Jedno z ciekawszych zdań rapportu pada własnie w tym punkcie, gdzie Chiny deklarują otwarcie, że najabrdziej dotknięte represjami ze strony USA firmy czy branże otrzymają odpowiednią pomoc państwa. Pada także stwierdzenie, że Chiny są gotowe do rozmów, ale negocjacje mogą być prowadzone jedynie w sytuacji, gdy między stronami jest szacunek, dobra wiara i wiarygodność. 

2.      Chiny są zainteresowane rozowjem stosunków handlowych na lini Chiny – USA, z poszanowanie interesów obu stron.

3.  Chiny sa zainteresowane reformami i usprawnieniami obwiązująych wielostronnych regulacji handlowych w ramach WTO.

4.      Chiny wprowadzają i wprowadzać będą regulacje dotyczące poszanowania własności intelektualnej

5.      Chiny zapewniają, że zachodnie firmy działające w Chinach mogą liczyć na ochronę ich interesów, w ramach prawa.

6.   Chiny wprowadzają i wprowadzać będą reformy służące otwarciu się Chin na świat. Istotne są tu słowa, że jak inne państwa, tak i Chiny mają prawo do wyboru swojej własnej ścieżki rozwoju, włączając tu model ekonomiczny, który współgra z ich sytuacją ekonomiczną. Autorzy stwierdzają również, że jako kraj rozwijający się nie są idealne, ale sa skłonne czerpać z wzorów i doświadczeń innych i usprawniać swój system, instytucje i regulacje poprzez reformy i otwieranie się. 

7.      Chiny zapewniają o swojej woli współpracy z rozwijającymi się, jak i rozwiniętymi państwami. 

 

Stawiam w końcu pytanie, w którą stronę zmierzają obecnie stosunki Chiny-USA i wychodzę z założenia, że obecnie mamy impas. Każda strona stara się wziąć drugą na przetrzymanie – ten, kto pierwszy wpadnie w większe kłopoty, zaproponuje powrót do rozmów. Problem jedynie, że nie mamy czasu na to i WTO powinna próbować przemówić obu stronom do rozsądku i skłonić do rozmów. Pamiętać bowiem trzeba, że na całej tej sytuacji nie ucierpią tylko te dwa kraje, ale cały świat. 

 

A teraz już nie pozostaje mi nic innego, jak tylko zaprosić do zapoznania się z całością mojego artykułu. Na samym końcu znajduje się link do pełnego tekstu Chinskiego raportu (uwaga, liczy sobie ponad 70stron).

 

Zainteresowanym polecam także mój wpis z roku 2011 – omówienie ameryańskiego dokumentu “The China Question”, który wyjątkowo pasuje do dzisiejszego wpisu. 

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At the end of September China released white paper ‘The Facts and China’s Position on China-US Trade Friction’ on its stance on the two countries’ trade friction, below you will find (relatively) short summary of most crucial points. 


At the beginning of its white paper China defends its position stating that both US and China are at different stages of development, have different economic systems and therefore there will be certain frictions between both economies. What China states is that it is looking for mutually beneficial relations but it takes both parties to work on solutions within frames of WTO. This cooperation is currently on hold due to US administration’s actions taken against China.


It is well known, that there are many differences between both countries. Both members of WTO, China being member since 2001, yet so different. USA is regarded as developed country, while China is officially still developing country with population of over 1.3 billion people. It it therefore misleading to judge China by its economic aggregate and trade volume, since those big numbers are diluted when compared to whole China population. China’s per capita GDP in 2017 was slightly over 8.6k USD, which is less than 15% of US per capita GDP. 

This difference between developed and developing country is also visible when judging their cooperation and how they play to their comparative strengths – US exports capital goods and intermediary goods to China (placing US at the mid- and high-end in global value chains) while China remains in low- and mid-end (exporting consumer goods and finished products). 


4 accusations made by US administration: “unfair trade”, “economic aggression”, “IPR theft” and “national capitalism”.


UNFAIR TRADE

Is the trade between those two ‘unfair trade’ as claimed by US administration? China shows in its report that cooperation between China in US is mutually-beneficial and is win-win rather then zero-sum game. Since both countries started cooperation in 1979 (opening reforms in China) two-way trade in goods since then until 2017 has grown over 230 times (based on Chinese statistics reaching in 2017 level of almost 584 billion USD).


As stated in paper: “Currently, the US is China’s biggest export market and sixth biggest source of imports. In 2017, the US took 19% of China’s exports and provided 8% of China’s imports. China is the fastest growing export market for US goods and the biggest source of imports of the United States. In 2017, 8% of US exports went to China. China is an import market for US goods such as airplanes, agricultural produce, automobiles, and integrated circuits. China represents the No. 1 export market for US airplanes and soybeans, and the No. 2 export market for US automobiles, IC products and cotton. In 2017 China took 57% of US soybean exports, 25% of Boeing aircraft, 20% of automobiles, 14% of ICs and 17% of cotton.

 

How about jobs in US? Chinese claims there were milion of jobs created in the US. “According to a US-China Business Council estimate, in 2015, US exports to China and US-China two-way investment supported 2.6 million jobs in America. Specifically, Chinese investment covered 46 states of the US, generating for the US more than 140,000 jobs, most of which are in manufacturing. Trade and economic cooperation has brought real benefits to American consumers. Bilateral trade provides consumers with a broad range of choices, lowers their living costs, and raises the real purchasing power of the American people, especially the low- and middle-income cohort. According to the US-China Business Council, in 2015, trade with China saved every American family US$850 of expenditure each year, which is equivalent to 1.5% of the average household income in the US.

That of course might be countered by US by saying that million of jobs were lost too, which is true, but let us don’t forget here that it was US companies independent decision to localize its manufacturing sites in China in order to take advantage of China low labor cost. 

 

IPR THEFT

China did cover also in its paper accusations of ‘IPR theft’, stating clearly that its attitude towards IPR protection is clear and firm. “It has continued to reinforce protection through legislation, law enforcement and the judiciary, and achieved some notable successes. Official reports by the US administration before 2016 also acknowledged China’s achievements in IPR protection. The China Business Climate Survey Reports by the American Chamber of Commerce in China indicate that, among the main challenges facing its member enterprises in China, IPR infringement has dropped from the 7th biggest concern in 2011 to 12th in 2018. The recent accusations by the US administration about China’s IPR protection are unrealistic and completely dismissive of China’s tremendous efforts and achievements in this regard.

China has formulated and improved its laws and regulations on IP protection, and enhanced protection of IPR. China built a fully-fledged and high-standard IP legal framework in a relatively short period, compared to the decades or more that developed countries spent setting up similar legal systems.

 

ECONOMIC AGGRESSION

Both countries are important investment partners, with US being major source of foreign investments in China. “According to MOFCOM, by the end of 2017, there were approximately 68,000 US-funded enterprises in China with over US$83 billion in actualized investment. With a rapid increase in direct investment by Chinese enterprises in the US, the latter has become an important destination for Chinese investment. As China’s outbound investment grew, Chinese enterprises’ direct investment in the US rose from US$65 million in 2003 to US$16.98 billion in 2016. According to MOFCOM figures, by the end 2017, the stock of Chinese direct investment in the US amounted to approximately US$67 billion. Meanwhile, China has also made a significant financial investment in the US. According to the US Treasury Department, China held US$1.18 trillion of US treasury bills by the end of May 2018.

Now while most of discussion and US arguments are around goods trade deficit, the gap in trade in goods is not a good indicator of US-China trade and economic cooperation. The imbalance of trade in goods between China and the US is to some extent result of US voluntary choices.

It is also worth to mention that China has deficit with US in services trade, concentrated in three areas: travel, transport and intellectual property royalties. “US statistics show that US service exports to China grew 340% from US$13.14 billion in 2007 to US$57.63 billion in 2017 while its service exports to other countries and regions in the same period grew by 180%. At present, the US represents roughly 20% of China’s total deficit in services trade, the biggest source of this deficit. China’s deficit with the US is concentrated in three areas: travel, transport and intellectual property royalties.

China-US trade and economic cooperation delivers balanced benefits in general. The imbalance of trade in goods between the two countries has evolved over time. From the 1980s to early 1990s, the US ran a surplus in its trade with China; in 1992 China began to run surplus, which has continued to grow.

How about Chinese companies investing all over the world – is that part of economic aggression? It is true that Chinese government encourage Chinese businesses to go global and engage in international economic exchange and cooperation. But is it attempt to acquire advanced technologies through M&A? Chinese paper contradict that by stating that in fact those Chinese investments in the US seeking to acquire technology represent small share, with most investments in real-estate, finance and services and only dozen in high-technology. 

 

NATIONAL CAPITALISM

This part is mainly counter-attack by showing how US is using some trade protectionist practices through investment and trade restriction policies and actions as well as using their “National Security Review” as a way to obstruct the normal investment activities of Chinese companies in the US.

Some of those practices China shows in its report: “(…) US governments at federal and sub-national levels provide large subsidies, bailout assistance, and concessional loans to some sectors and companies. Such actions obstruct, to a large extent, fair market competition. According to Good Jobs First, an American organization that tracks subsidies, between 2000 and 2015, the federal government provided at least US$68 billion in grants and special tax credits to businesses, with 582 large companies receiving 67 percent of the total. During the same period, federal agencies gave the private sector hundreds of billions of dollars in loans, loan guarantees, and bailout assistance. 

And further – use of large-scale non-tariff barriers: “While the WTO does not completely prohibit countries from protecting their domestic industries, certain principles must be followed, including lower non-tariff barriers, greater transparency of policies and measures, and a minimal level of trade distortion. The US has put in place a large number of discriminatory non-tariff barriers that are more targeted yet disguised, in an effort to keep specific segments of the domestic market under strict protection. According to the WTO, the US has reported 3,004 sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and 1,574 technical barriers to trade (TBT) measures, accounting for 18 percent and 6.6 percent of the world’s total. “

 

China’s position

So after all those explanations what is China’s stance on trade war? 

1. China will safeguard its core interests. Probably most important words are those: “(…) the worst-affected Chinese companies and sectors will receive assistance as needed.” At the same time it stays open to negotiations but “(…) negotiations can only happen when there is mutual respect, equality good faith and credibility. Negotiations cannot be conducted under the threat of tariffs, or at the cost of China’s right to development.”

The “World Economic Outlook” report released by the IMF on April 17, 2018 noted that raising tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers will disrupt the global value chain, slow down the spread of new technologies, and lead to a drop in global productivity and investment. 

 

2. China is committed to development of China-US trade relations and will resume negotiations under condition of equality and mutual benefit

 

3. China is committed to the reform and improvement of the multilateral trading system (by reforming global trade statistics system based on the global value chain and value-added in trade). At the same time clearly states that WTO “is the cornerstone of international trade, and a pillar for the sound and orderly development of global trade. China is firm in observing and upholding the WTO rules.”

 

4. China is committed to protecting property rights and intellectual property rights (IPR). “China will keep improving its laws and regulations on IPR protection, enhance the quality and efficiency of IPR reviews, and introduce the system of punitive damage compensation for intentional IPR infringements to significantly raise the cost of law violations. China protects the lawful IPR of foreign businesses in strict accordance with the law, and takes stern measures to address all types of IPR infringement cases. “

 

5. China is committed to protecting the lawful rights and interests of foreign businesses in China.

The Chinese government pays close attention to the legitimate concerns of foreign investors, and stands ready to respond to and address their specific concerns. China will always protect the lawful rights and interests of foreign investors and foreign-invested businesses, and take firm measures to address violations of their lawful rights and interests in accordance with the law. ” 

 

6. China is committed to deepening reform and widening opening-up.

Reform and opening-up are China’s basic policies, and provide fundamental driving force for its development. China will not reverse course, but only deepen its reform. “

But, “Like other countries, China has the right to choose its own development path, including the economic model, that suits its national reality. As a developing country, China is not perfect, but it is willing to draw on advanced experience and keep improving its systems, institutions and policies through reform and opening-up. 

 

7. China is committed to mutually beneficial cooperation with other developed and developing countries. 

China will work with the EU to expedite and strive for early consensus in the negotiations on the China-EU Investment Agreement, and, on this basis, take the China-EU FTA onto the agenda. China will accelerate negotiations on the China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Area and work for early conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). China will promote deeper cooperation under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative based on the principles of consultation, cooperation and benefit for all, and make efforts to achieve policy, infrastructure, trade, financial, and people-to-people connectivity and create new drivers for common development.

 

So where are we heading? At the moment it seems that both sides are putting bold faces on trade war. Whoever breaks first, will ask to resume negotiations. Now as I see it, we (world) cannot simply wait and should help both USA and China come to senses. There should be some body trying to bring both countries to the table. Should it be WTO? It seems so. It’s not going to be easy, but there is no other way as escalating will not only influence both countries, but whole world (by slowing down global growth) 

Whole document can be found here:

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-09/24/c_137490176.htm

 

Napisal

Od 2005 w Chinach, gdzie mieszkam, pracuję, obserwuję i piszę :-)

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2 komentarze(y) do wpisu: "Wojna handlowa Chiny – USA"

  1. stas says:

    No cóż- nawet postronni obserwatorzy, zdają sobie sprawę z konsekwencji konfliktów rodzących się na poziomie współpracy gospodarczej !!!
    Jakby nie było zawsze, w perspektywie historycznej, konsekwencje ponosili zwykli ludzie.
    I w tej rzeczywistości pytania zwykłych ludzi o sens w ogóle dziwnej polityki europejskie i światowej mają sens, bo “znowu i jak zawsze,(…)nie ma pytań pilniejszych od pytań naiwnych”.
    I co tu mówić całość tego co się dzieje lokalnie i globalnie można podsumować parafrazując słowa Szymborskiej “miał być lepszy od zeszłych nasz wiek XXI”.

  2. Wojtek says:

    Ale jak widac, przynajmniej przegladajac polskie portale internetowe, problemy typu wojna handlowa Chiny-USA nie zaprzataja uwagi zwyklych ludzi. Co jeszcze jestem w stanie zrozumiec (w koncu jak sie na cos nie ma wplywu, to nie ma sobie co glowy zaprzatac). Gorzej, ze Ci w Polsce, ktorzy maja wplyw na polska rzeczywistosc tez nie do konca sa zainteresowani tym, co sie dzieje.

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